Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
